The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday night at Citizens Bank Park will play a decisive Game 7 of the National League Championship Series to determine who advances to face the Rangers for the belt and the title in the 2023 World Series.Given the stakes involved and the "one game to rule them all" nature of such contests, you can expect that managers Rob Thomson and Torey Lovullo will be aggressive in deploying their respective pitching staffs.
Speaking of which, the host Phillies will start lefty Ranger Suárez, who's been highly effective in these playoffs, and the D-backs will tab rookie right-hander Brandon Pfaadt, who's twirled a combined 10 scoreless innings over his last two starts of the 2023 postseason.
As you would expect in a Game 7, every rostered pitcher who's physically able to take the mound, even for a short-burst outing, is available – "all hands on deck," in the postseason parlance mandated by both federal law and ancient tradition. As well, both managers typically adhere to the playoff mindset of lifting a pitcher preemptively, or before he can get into trouble rather than after. Starting pitchers are "cruising" until the moment they're not and better to get them out too soon rather than too late in a hotly contested game. As such, you can expect early hooks for both Suárez and Pfaadt, and likely under no circ*mstances will they be allowed to face the opposing batting order for a third time, which is when starting pitchers almost universally see their performances degrade.
Speaking of which, Pfaadt in three starts this postseason has peaked at 18 batters faced (in Game 3 vs. the Phillies), and that comes to exactly two trips through the opposing lineup. Suárez in his three playoff starts this year has faced, respectively, 13; 18; and, most recently in NLCS Game 3, 20 batters. Yes, in that most recent start, he leaked into the opposing order for a third time, but Thomson may have done so just get lefty-on-lefty versus Corbin Carroll in the sixth inning. As well, Game 3 was the first of three games in three days, which means Thomson may have been looking to spare his bullpen a couple of outs worth of work.
On the matter of the bullpen, yes, both arm barns should be heavily used in Game 7, and the bullpen for this contest probably includes rested or even slightly rested starters. Sunday was an off day in the series, and neither bullpen was overtaxed in Monday's Game 6.
On the Arizona side, Lovullo used four relievers, but the pitch counts were modest (Ryan Thompson led the way with 15 pitches across four outs). Closer Paul Sewald needed just 11 pitches in the ninth, and he'll no doubt be available. Is that a potential concern, though? Sewald during the 2023 regular season made 16 appearances on zero days of rest, and in those appearances he had a 6.59 ERA with a 2.14 K/BB ratio. Across his career – a much more adequate sample – the numbers are less concerning but still less than optimal for a high-leverage reliever, at least from a run-prevention standpoint (4.50 ERA on zero-days' rest with a 3.81 K/BB ratio across 65 appearances). During Arizona's current playoff run, Sewald has twice pitched on back-to-back days, and he's put up a scoreless frame each time.
As for Philly, uncharacteristic struggles for Aaron Nola in game six limited him to just 4 1/3 innings, which in turn meant a heavier load for the bullpen. Craig Kimbrel, who's probably a low-leverage guy for the time being after his struggles earlier in the series, led the way with 20 pitches. Orion Kerkering and Michael Lorenzen each had 19, and lefty Gregory Soto threw nine pitches. Soto's workload isn't a concern, and of the remaining three only Kerkering right now is what would be considered a priority arm for Thomson.
The Phillies' best and most trusted reliever, José Alvarado, hasn't seen game action since Friday, when he threw a mere six pitches. Counting the 2022 and 2023 postseason, Alvarez has made multi-inning relief appearances 40 times in his career – including working two innings against Arizona in Game 3. Given all that, don't be surprised if Thomson leans heavily on the big lefty. Beyond that, the remainder of Thomson's most favored bullpen arms – Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Domínguez, and Matt Strahm – will be on two-days' rest for Game 7.
Elsewhere, starting pitchers available for duty include, most notably, the two team's respective aces, Zack Wheeler and Zac Gallen. Neither has ever pitched in relief in the majors, but Tuesday marks their throw days following their head-to-head duel in Game 5. In that game, Wheeler logged 99 pitches, and Gallen threw 93. Instead of throwing on the side, however, each could see crucial duty in Game 7. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, Wheeler's bullpen session would have entailed 25 to 40 pitches, while Gallen's bullpen would've probably been in the 30 to 40 range. Given that game pitches, especially in a deciding playoff game, are max-stress and max-effort, the lower bound of a bullpen pitch count is probably beyond the upper bound of game pitch count.
If called upon, they'd be well served by coming into a clean inning given their lack of familiarity with entering a game with runners on. Wheeler in particular has the kind of wipeout stuff that could play up even higher in a short-burst role. Again, though, dropping a starting pitcher into some kind of jam is probably not advisable if you have a choice. Circ*mstances, however, could force such a thing on Tuesday night.
Above all, expect a conga line of arms, even those unfamiliar with the relief role, and for the starters to exit early even if they appear to be poised for continued dominance. The postseason always occasions an abundance of managerial lever-pulling when it comes to bullpen deployment, and that's especially the case in Game 7. The paths from dugout to mound will be well worn by the time we know whether the Phillies or Diamondbacks are bound for the Fall Classic.
