Election latest: Rishi Sunak responds to poll that has Reform ahead of Tories (2024)

After years of questions over exactly what Labour would do if in government, the party unveiled its manifesto on Thursday, including its tax and spend plans.

Our economics and data editor Ed Conwayhas provisionally crunched the numbers to work out:

• How much Labour will raise in tax versus how much it will spend (spoiler: it's cautious);
• How those plans compare to the other main parties;
• How they compare to Labour's manifesto proposals in 2019 and 2017;
• The effect on the tax burden over the next five years.

Watch Ed's full analysis below:

Beth Rigby has revealed how she decided on a "narrative" before quizzing the Labour and Tory leaders at Sky News's special event - and how a morning run almost scuppered everything.

Sir Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak took turns for a 45-minute grilling at Sky News' Battle For Number 10 in Grimsby, with questions coming from a representative audience.

First to interrogate both leaders was political editor Rigby, who has lifted the lid on what it's like to prepare, execute (and almost miss) the big event.

"Kay Burley told me when I first came into telly 'fail to prepare, prepare to fail'," she told former Labour MP Margaret Hodge on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast.

"So, I took these two mottos into this very intense interview prep… you get loads of information and you start to try and work out what's the narrative that you want to tell."

The secret, she said, is to look at everything and then "distil it" until you have a clear "narrative arc".

"With Starmer, the thing really was - how can you trust this guy? That was the premise," she said.

"But for Sunak, it was like, you say you've got a clear plan, you say you're going to deliver… so, what's the Conservative record? But more importantly, what's your record?

"Because you've actually been prime minister. You made five pledges, and then there was a broader question about what were the betrayals to the British people."

But disaster almost struck before the event had even started.

"The night before, I woke up at, like, five in the morning, fully awake," she said, adding she could "feel the adrenaline".

So, she decided to go for a run.

"I just saw I'm coming to the end of the road. And I went to turn round, and, as I turned, I nearly ran into a moving car. So, I nearly got run over," she explained.

Not the kind of car crash anyone would have expected that day.

Listen to the full podcast here:

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Email the team electoraldysfunction@sky.uk, post on X to @BethRigby, or send a WhatsApp voice note on 07934 200 444.

Next to ask a question ofTreasury minister Laura Trott is Sky News political correspondent Rob Powell.

He asks if it is not a bit rich for her to attack Labour on tax given that their own calculations show the overall tax burden higher in 2028/29.

Ms Trott replies that the Tories have been "very open and honest about the fact we've had to make some really difficult decisions because of COVID and because of Putin's illegal war in Ukraine, pushing up energy prices".

But she says there is now a "clear choice" between them, who want to cut taxes, and Labour, who she claims wants to raise them.

Rob also asks if she should really be spending more time on countering Reform UK, given that a poll has showed the insurgent right-wing party overtaking the Tories for the first time.

Ms Trott says: "The Conservative Party are fighting for every single vote in this election.

"And look, we're only halfway through - things can change."

But she goes on: "The poll is a stark warning.If a result like this is replicated on election day, Keir Starmer would have huge and unchecked power to tax your home, your job, your car, your pension, however he wants, and we are fighting for every vote."

Treasury minister Laura Trott is now taking questions from the media.

Christian Calgie from the Express puts to her that many Tory candidates were pushing for the party to offer much deeper tax cuts, and so given that the polls are still terrible for them, asks if she can rule out offering more tax cuts during the campaign in a bid to win more support.

Ms Trott replies that there is a "dividing line" between the two parties - the Tories will cut taxes, while Labour will "put taxes up".

"That is, I think, what is going to concentrate the minds of everybody during this general election."

But she does not rule out expanding the offer of tax cuts during the campaign.

Treasury minister Laura Trott has just given a news conference following the launch of Labour's manifesto yesterday.

This post was updated live - here are the key points of what she said:

The key message is that the opposition's plans contain "not cuts, only tax rises", and they would "take the tax burden to a record high".

She reiterates the Tory claim that Labour's plans would see taxes rise by over £2,000 per household - a figure that has been deemed highly dubious by experts.

Ms Trott also attacked the New Labour government that entered office in 1997, saying they launched an "infamous raid on pensions".

Over two decades later, the minister is accusing Starmer's Labour of having "deliberately failed to rule out 18 potential tax rises".

She goes on to claim it is "obvious" the Labour leader will get into office and "cynically claim the books he inherited are much worse than he thought, as justification for tax rises that he hasn't told you about".

But Ms Trott claims the books are already publicly available, and calls on Sir Keir Starmer to "have the courage to seek a real mandate from the British people by setting out the detail of these tax rises during this election campaign".

She turns to the Tory manifesto, listing a number of tax cuts they have planned if they win the election (although analysis shows the overall tax burden will continue to rise regardless).

Ms Trott points out Labour has not guaranteed not to raise taxes "on pensions, on family homes, on family businesses, on cars, and on energy bills".

"That's why our message to the British people is if you think the Labour Party are going to win, start saving," she concludes.

By Tamara Cohen, political correspondent, in Puglia

The prime minister has weighed in after a video emerged of President Joe Biden appearing to wander away from other world leaders at the G7, which has triggered a row in some quarters of the US media.

The world leaders assembled on the golf course of the Borgo Egnazia luxury hotel, where the summit is taking place, to watch Italian army parachutists perform a gliding feat.

Each carried the flag of a G7 attending country, and the EU flag.

But President Biden appeared in footage to wander off as they landed, until Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni ushered him back to the group.

Today, Mr Sunak, who was feet away, said: "He went to go and talk to the pilot; the parachutist, he went to go and shake all their hands.

"They had all landed and he was being very polite and wanted to go and talk to all of them individually and Giorgia [Meloni] was saying 'don’t worry they're going to come' - we all had to line up and shake all their hands.

"As far as I know, he went to talk to the parachute jumpers. Everyone wanted to chat to the guy with their flag, I had a chat with the guy with the British flag."

President Biden, who has faced criticism in the US over his age, skipped the dinner hosted by Italian president Sergio Mattarella at the Swabian castle in Brindisi last night - amid reports in Italian media that he was "tired".

But he earlier in the evening appeared at a press conference with Ukrainian president Zelenskyy to announce a landmark 10-year security pact, shortly after agreeing the terms of a $50bn loan.

Jeremy Corbyn is on a drive to recruit hundreds more volunteers for his election campaign, believing he is "neck and neck" with his former party.

The ex-Labour leader is running to be an independent in Islington North, a seat he has held for 40 years.

He has managed to attract around 200 activists a day to help him canvas in the London constituency, but a source close to him told Sky News that this is "not enough to reach every single person before 4 July".

Mr Corbyn wants to double the number of people on his campaign to compete with Labour's resources and drum up his support.

The source said there has been "some confusion on the doorstep about Jeremy being an independent" with some of those planning to vote for him under the impression he is still part of Sir Keir Starmer's party.

"The conversations on the doorstep make a huge difference," they said.

Read more from our political reporter Faye Brownhere:

Johnny Mercer is out and about campaigning to be re-elected in his seat of Plymouth Moor View, and he has tweeted a video of him and his wife walking through the constituency this morning.

The aim of the video and the tweet is to make clear that a vote for Reform would see a Labour MP and "wall-to-wall socialists" in the area.

It comes in the wake of last night's YouGov poll showing Reform on 19% and the Tories on 18%.

But in the caption accompanying the tweet, the incumbent minister refused to criticise Reform at all, writing: "Poll out overnight. Totally understand why people are thinking Reform, you won’t find me slating them."

In the video, he did not make the case for why the Conservative Party should be re-elected to government.

He appeared to acknowledge that Labour will win, and so voting for Reform and, in his view, electing a Labour candidate would leave "no one to oppose anything or stand up for you here in Plymouth".

He added: "If you want me to continue as your MP and put you first in everything, you've got to go out and vote. It's not a done deal - we're fighting like hell down here."

Here are the other candidates standing in Plymouth Moor View:

• Shaun Hooper, Reform UK;
• Sarah Martin, Liberal Democrats;
• Georgia Nelson, Green Party;
• Fred Thomas, Labour Party.

It was Labour's turn to launch its election manifesto today. It was a restatement of the party's main policies, with no surprise announcements in the 133-page document.

Sir Keir Starmer reiterated his key pledges including no new taxes on "working people" and a promise of "economic stability".

Niall Paterson digs into Labour's promise of economic growth with Ed Conway, Sky's economics and data editor, and speaks to political correspondent Serena Barker-Singh, who was at the launch in Manchester.

Plus, John McTernan, political strategist and former political secretary to Tony Blair, discusses the politics of their manifesto and whether it matters that there were no new announcements.

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As we've been reporting, Reform UK has overtaken the Conservative Party for the first time in a new YouGov poll for The Times (more here).

We asked Labour's Wes Streeting for his reaction, and he replied that Reform UK is "very much part of the Conservative Party's psychodrama".

"We've seen Conservative candidates like Andrea Jenkyns putting Nigel Farage positively on her leaflets instead of her own leader.

"We've got to bear in mind if we have another Conservative government, that is the kind of chaos and division we're going to be saddled with for another five years."

Reform is also a threat to Labour, and Mr Streeting said they are going to "take them on".

"We're going to take them on in the battle of ideas and the battle of arguments.

"And I just urge people to bear in mind about Nigel Farage, that he is a formidable campaigner. I don't doubt that. I don't underestimate him.

"But he has never, ever had to deliver the change that he always says he's calling for. He's never really been tested as a politician."